 |
| Up and coming:
DBS Vickers estimates that HDB may have to build an average of 14,000
flats a year over the next 20 years to meet public housing demand, in a
scenario where Singapore's population hits 6.5 million by 2027 |
Responding to strong demand, HDB will offer 13,500 flats in 2009, he
said. This is about 'half the number of flats in Bukit Panjang or Pasir
Ris town'.
Public housing was a hot topic in Parliament
yesterday, as applications surged for new flats and resale flat prices
soared to record levels in the third quarter.
According to Mr
Mah, HDB started the year with a planned flat supply of 6,000, as the
economy was stuck in recession. It had to ramp up flat supply as an
unexpected turnaround in the second half of the year boosted demand.
'If take-up of BTO (Build-To-Order) flats remains strong, we will
continue to push out more flats under BTO next year - at least one
every month if necessary,' he said.
In the next five years, HDB
projects that it has to offer 10,000 to 12,000 new flats per year, he
continued. The agency arrived at these figures after taking into
account various factors, in particular the number of new households
formed from marriages and immigration, and resale flat transactions.
This medium-term projection serves as a guide for the BTO system, Mr
Mah said. But he stressed: 'What actually happens a few years down the
road is not known. Demand is also not constant. It varies from year to
year, depending on economic and other factors.'
Mr Mah also said
HDB has a 'small buffer' of flats over and above those from the BTO
scheme. HDB did not intentionally plan this buffer - it comprises
surplus flats from other programmes such as the Selective En-bloc
Redevelopment Scheme.
PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail
believes that the projected 10,000 to 12,000 new flats a year is
adequate. 'Over-supply would only serve to dampen the asset value of a
majority of Singaporeans who live in HDB flats,' he said. 'We must also
consider the continual supply of resale flats, potentially amounting to
40,000 transactions this year alone.'
Chesterton Suntec
International research and consultancy director Colin Tan agrees the
projected number of new HDB flats seems reasonable. But he is concerned
about whether there is a mechanism to warn HDB of a potential sudden
increase in demand.
Population growth and immigration will drive
up demand for flats. In a report issued yesterday, DBS Vickers
projected in a base case scenario that Singapore's population could
reach 6.5 million in 2027. It estimates that HDB may have to build an
average of 14,000 flats a year over the next 20 years to meet public
housing demand.